A new report from the agency charged with overseeing America’s energy system warns that soaring electricity demand is outstripping supply, and current energy policies driving more power plants into retirement are making the problem worse.

The North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) recently released its updated Long-Term Reliability Assessment, and its analysis is dire. The combination of increased electrification of power demand and the retirement of baseload power generation from coal and nuclear is creating a possibility that power demand will outstrip supply.

That problem is being exacerbated by the huge electricity demands of data centers and artificial intelligence.

“Our infrastructure is not being built fast enough to keep up with the rising demand,” said John Moura, NERC’s director of reliability assessment and performance analysis. “Policymakers, industry leaders and stakeholders across North America must work together to ensure the expansion of the bulk power system, ensure new resources can interconnect effectively and reliably, and also maintain reliability that our society depends on.”

None of this is news to leaders in the energy industry, who’ve been warning for years that promises of a zero-emissions future will be broken by the realities of increased electricity demand.

“NERC’s new Long-Term Reliability Assessment adds to years of warnings from grid operators, public utility commissioners, FERC commissioners and other officials that many parts of the country are facing the real possibility of electricity shortages, with some parts facing a risk of shortages as early as next year,” said Michelle Bloodworth, the president and CEO of America’s Power, which advocates for America’s coal industry. “NERC has issued 11 warnings over the past five years, and the risk has grown worse over time.”

According to the report, peak summer demand will increase by 15 percent, while peak winter demand is expected to rise by 18 percent.

To put it in more concrete terms, last year’s report projected America would need 80 gigawatts of increased supply to meet peak summer demand. Now, the NERC analysis says that number is 132 gigawatts.

Energy leaders are asking: Where will those electrons come from?

“NERC’s latest assessment continues painting a grim picture of our nation’s energy future and growing threats to reliable electricity,” said Jim Matheson, the CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association. “This report points directly to the need for a pro-energy policy agenda that prioritizes reliability and affordability for American families and businesses. We urge President Trump and congressional leaders to prioritize reliability right out of the gate next year before it’s too late.”

Supporters of the Biden administration’s $300 billion spending on green energy in the Inflation Reduction Act say renewables will meet the rising demand. However, the NERC report notes that while “new solar (panels), battery and hybrid resources continue to flood interconnection queues, completion rates are lagging behind the need for new generation. Furthermore, the performance of these replacement resources is more variable and weather-dependent than the generators they are replacing.”

NERC’s warning echoes a report in November by a group of free-market New England think tanks, including the Josiah Bartlett Center.

“Just as in our study, the NERC report forecasts a huge surge in energy demand at the same time New England state governments try to force a shift to less reliable wind and solar power generation,” Josiah Bartlett Center President Drew Cline said. “Both studies show that these trends, if not reversed, will compromise reliability, putting New Englanders at risk of not having enough electricity during periods of peak demand.”

Throughout its report, NERC notes an inconvenient truth about renewable sources: They are intermittent. The wind doesn’t always blow, the sun doesn’t always shine — and the effect of drought on Quebec’s power grid shows even hydropower isn’t 100 percent reliable.

Rich Nolan, who heads the National Mining Association, says this is another reason the United States should keep reliable coal power in the electricity mix.

“Surging electricity demand is colliding with an unworkable regulatory agenda that is producing self-imposed scarcity, undermining affordability and reliability. There should be no confusion: The nation’s rapidly deteriorating grid reliability and surging power prices are the direct result of policy failure,” Nolan said.

“Fundamentally, we cannot short-change the bridge to our energy future, and that requires recognizing the ongoing critical importance of the fuel-secure, dispatchable power provided by the nation’s coal fleet.”

Michael Graham is the managing editor at InsideSources.com.